Research

Bitcoin Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions: 2025

San Francisco • Aug 21, 2025
Bitcoin Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions: 2025

As bitcoin continues gaining momentum with institutional investors, having a clear, data-driven long-term forecast is more essential than ever. This report provides the insights and estimates needed to understand how bitcoin could fit into investor portfolios over the next decade.

Key forecasts include:

  • Target price: $1.3 million by 2035

  • Compound annual growth rate: 28.3%

  • Average volatility: 32.9%

  • Average correlation to U.S. stocks: 0.39

  • Institutional investor allocations: 1% to 5% of portfolios

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About Bitwise

Bitwise Asset Management is a global crypto asset manager with more than $15 billion in client assets and a suite of over 30 investment products spanning ETFs, separately managed accounts, private funds, hedge fund strategies, and staking. The firm has an eight-year track record and today serves more than 4,000 private wealth teams, RIAs, family offices and institutional investors as well as 15 banks and broker-dealers. The Bitwise team of over 125 technology and investment professionals is backed by leading institutional investors and has offices in San Francisco, New York, and London.

Authors
  • Matt Hougan
    Matt HouganChief Investment Officer
  • Ryan Rasmussen
    Ryan RasmussenHead of Research
  • Juan Leon, CFA
    Juan Leon, CFASenior Investment Strategist
  • Josh Carlisle
    Josh CarlisleSenior Data Analyst
  • Mallika Kolar
    Mallika KolarQuantitative Research Analyst
  • André Dragosch, PhD
    André Dragosch, PhDDirector, Head of Research, Europe
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