2027 Bitcoin Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions
San Francisco • Oct 28, 2026
Our newly updated "Bitcoin Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions" provides Bitwise forecasts for bitcoin’s return, volatility, and correlations over the next decade.
Key forecasts include:
Target price: $1.6 million by 2036
Compound annual growth rate: 34.3%
Average volatility: 27.8%
Average correlation to U.S. stocks: 0.43
Institutional investor allocations: 1% to 5% of portfolios
We forecast bitcoin will be the best-performing major institutional asset of the next decade. It will also remain a volatile asset subject to significant (but diminishing) drawdowns. The largest risks come from quantum computing, AI-driven mathematical advances, and regulatory reversal.
read the reportBitwise Asset Management is a global asset manager specializing in crypto and onchain finance with a nine-year track record and more than $14 billion in client assets. The firm’s suite of over 70 investment products—spanning ETFs, option income strategies, model portfolios, DeFi vaults, tokenized funds, and staking—helps investors access opportunities across the financial frontier. Bitwise serves more than 5,500 private wealth teams, RIAs, family offices, and institutional investors, as well as 21 banks and broker-dealers. The company is headquartered in San Francisco, with offices in New York and London.
